Failcascade

Endgame ahead

Archive for the ‘Stocks & Finance’ Category

Summarizing the current state of the markets

without comments

Grant Williams did it again at last months ASFA national conference, summing up the recent developments of equities and government bond markets, giving an outlook on what’s to come in next couple months and years… Fun to watch as always, even though it’s really nothing but depressing if you thing about it. 30 minutes well spent:

Written by mo

December 13th, 2013 at 12:07 pm

Gold, Korea and bombs in Boston

without comments

That’s quite a day today. First the price of gold continued to tumble, falling from around $1600 an ounce a couple days ago to 1360 as of now – the fastest, most violent and mostly unexplained drop in precious metals since about 30 years or so.

Later today, another threat of (nuclear) war from still-crazy North Korea, proclaiming:

N. KOREA SAYS RETALIATORY ACTION TO START WITHOUT NOTICE
N. KOREA TO START MILITARY ACTIONS IMMEDIATELY

Of course, today is also former “president” Kim Il-sung birthday and at least according to The Guardian there are for some reason no parades and other festivities. Since NK is kinda famous for their stupidly pompous parades and show of military force, there might actually be something to it… So let’s wait and see.

And a few moments later, reports come in from multiple explosions at the Boston Marathon finish line. Multiple dead, dozens wounded, chaos everywhere and half the US is once again shitting their pants they might be under some kind of terrorist attack. Than again, I guess 2-3 bombs set off during a public event like this make it a terrorist attack.

Now… is it homegrown terrorism by some lone wolf, a group of American nutjobs, the usual suspects from the middle east doing it for religious reasons or maybe it was actually a state-sponsored attack? An asymmetric kick-off by North Korea? Let’s wait and see – I just hope it isn’t the last one.

Written by mo

April 15th, 2013 at 9:30 pm

Spain’s Stock Exchange halted

without comments

Due to “a technical glitch” (riiiiiiight) Spain’s stock exchange is currently down and has been for some hours now. According to a spokesman for the operator, there’s currently no estimate for the resumption of trade nor any kind if further information on the nature of the “glitch”.

Nothing to see here, move along.

Written by mo

August 6th, 2012 at 12:55 pm

US GDP-to-debt crosses 100%

without comments

Well isn’t that just swell? For the first time in 70 years the US debt/GDP today crossed above 100%. Almost exactly one year after the US downgrade at the beginning of August 2011. Happy Anniversary, I guess!

According to the latest data available from the Bureau of Economic Analysis (GDP at 6-30-12), U.S. Treasury (Public Debt at 8-2-12), and U.S. Census Bureau (Population at 8-4-12):
Public Debt $15.921 trillion
GDP $15.596 trillion
Population 314.090 million
Annualized Interest Expense $501.157 billion
Effective Interest Rate 3.39%

And the outlook at the current rate of progression? (Thanks to ZH)

2016:

  • Total US debt: $22.2 trillion (an increase of over $6 trillion from today)
  • Total debt per US taxpayer: $180,000
  • Debt to GDP: 130% (30% higher than today)
  • Food stamp recipients: 50 million
  • M2: $14.3 trillion (an increase of over $4 trillion from today)

and:

  • Total US Unfunded liabilities of $147 trillion (or $1.2 million per taxpayer)
  • $950 trillion in currency and credit derivatives, margined courtesy of TBTF banks’ cash deposits.

Written by mo

August 5th, 2012 at 10:46 pm

End of the Road – How Money Became Worthless (Trailer)

without comments

Ever dreamed of getting all the fiat money skeptics together at the same time, all in the same place? Your dream has now come true, courtesy of “End of the Road – How Money Became Worthless.”

Watch the teaser below.

End of the Road Documentary Trailer from Tim Delmastro on Vimeo.

Is the financial crisis over, or are we heading towards disaster? End of The Road portrays eleven influential commentators within the finance and investment communities, as they share their knowledge of our current financial structure. Through each of their narratives, a story is built which chronicles the current economic dilemma and paints a picture of the world’s financial future.

I’ve no idea when the full movie will actually be released, since as of now, the website seems to be down for exceeding its bandwith limit.

Update, April 2012: As of now you can sign up on their website to get an notification as soon as the movie is about to be released.

Wall street is being occupied. Europe is collapsing in on itself. Around the world, people are consumed by fear and anger, and one question is on everyone’s lips: Is the financial crisis over, or are we headed towards economic disaster?

End of the Road is a 55 minute documentary film that chronicles the global financial collapse. Told in an entertaining and easy to follow style, the film tells the story of how the world came to be in such a state, from the seeds sown after WWII, to the current troubles facing us today, and to the possible future that may await us all. Some of the world’s top economic minds share the hidden tale behind the mishandling of the world’s finances, give insight into how bad policy and a flawed monetary system joined together to create a catastrophe.

End of the Road portrays eleven influential commentators within the finance and investment communities, as they share their knowledge of our current financial structure. Through each of their narratives, a story is built which chronicles the current economic dilemma and paints a picture of the world’s financial future.

Cast
Peter Schiff
Eric Sprott
James Turk
Bill Murphy
Alasdair Macleod
Jim Puplava
G Edward Griffin
Mike Maloney
James G Rickards
Adam Fergusson MEP
Dimitri Speck

Written by mo

March 22nd, 2012 at 10:01 am

Greek CDS triggered

without comments

EMEA DC Statement

March 9, 2012

In light of today’s EMEA Determinations Committee (the EMEA DC) unanimous decision in respect of the potential Credit Event question relating to The Hellenic Republic (DC Issue 2012030901), the EMEA DC has agreed to publish the following statement:

The EMEA DC resolved that a Restructuring Credit Event has occurred under Section 4.7 of the ISDA 2003 Credit Derivatives Definitions (as amended by the July 2009 Supplement) (the 2003 Definitions) following the exercise by The Hellenic Republic of collective action clauses to amend the terms of Greek law governed bonds issued by The Hellenic Republic (the Affected Bonds) such that the right of all holders of the Affected Bonds to receive payments has been reduced.

The EMEA DC has resolved to hold an auction with respect to the settlement of standard credit default swaps for which The Hellenic Republic is the reference entity. To maximise the range of obligations that market participants may deliver in settlement of any such credit default swaps, the EMEA DC  has agreed to run an expedited auction process such that the auction itself will take place on March 19, 2012. In light of this expedited auction process, market participants should submit any obligations that they would like to include on the list of deliverable obligations to ISDA as soon as possible.

Written by mo

March 9th, 2012 at 9:18 pm

Short but accurate 2011 Q3 / Q4 stock market summary

without comments

  1. Crash into early August, then hit a low where market rallied up 10% in six days.
  2. We then dropped about 7% in 3 days.
  3. We then rallied up about 9% in 7 days.
  4. And then in 2 days we dropped about 8%.
  5. In 2 days we rallied up 5.5%.
  6. And then next 2 days we dropped 6%.
  7. And the next 5 days we rallied up 7%.
  8. And the next 3 days we dropped about 9%.
  9. Next, we rallied up about 7%.
  10. The next 4 days we dropped about 10%.Culminating with the wash out on Oct 4.
  11. And then in 5 days we rallied up 11%.
  12. Sat around.had two big gaps into the highs of late August and then we did two big gaps down.
  13. A little rally up.
  14. Another big day down.
  15. Within a day, a gap up. Then another big drop.
  16. Went down about 9% in seven days.
  17. And this week on two days that gapped up, a total of about 640 points.
  18. We finished with a rally this week of 8% and this one was for the books. You couldn’t get in because they were gaps.
    (thanks to Stealth Stocks letter, Dennis Slothower via ZeroHedge)

Now, who said the market seems to be broken lately? I can assure you all those moves were totally warranted by fundamentals. </sarcams>

Written by mo

December 7th, 2011 at 3:57 pm

Ralley like it’s 2009

without comments

So what exactly happened today that cause the DJIA to close more the 4% higher, in line with markets all over the world? Well, central banks decided it was once again time to inject more liquidity into the markets by lowering USD lending costs from OIS+100bps to OIS+50bps (= from 1% to 0.5%). That’s apparently all that is necessary nowadays to cause an instant surge in equity markets like there hasn’t been since March 2009.

But what actually changed? What problems are supposed to be “solved” now? Has anything at all be accomplished? Nope.

Half of Europe is still on the verge of bankruptcy. The US for all intents and purposes is just as broke as Europe, except nobody seems to care right lately. The likelihood of another war in Syria and/or Iran is greater than ever. And if that wasn’t enough already, Russia and China just started to make it look like there could be another cold war coming.

Which makes me wonder… how long will it take this time before the markets realize that todays rally was nothing but yet another huge knee-jerk response to yet another intervention/rumor/plan/… that won’t change a thing. My guess would be one, maybe two weeks at best before we’re down again.

Written by mo

December 1st, 2011 at 1:05 am

Posted in Stocks & Finance

Today’s downgrade: Belgium

without comments

NEW YORK (CNNMoney) — Credit rating agency Standard & Poor’s downgraded Belgium Friday as the sovereign debt crisis continues to spread across the continent.

The rating change put Belgium’s rating down one notch to AA. That’s the S&P’s fourth-highest rating is still investment grade. But the rating agency warned it is considering further cuts, assigning it a negative outlook. [full report at CNN Money]

Yes, that’s the same Belgium which has not had a government for 18 months now.

Written by mo

November 25th, 2011 at 9:11 pm

Kyle Bass: You can’t hate the mirror cause you’re ugly

without comments

Kyle Bass unabridged interview on BBC’s hardtalk – 25 minutes well worth watching.

Quoting Zerohedge:

Reflecting on the similarities of his subprime perspective, he provides a crucial context for the debt-laden world of sovereign debt that he is now hedging. Shrugging off the somewhat snarky ‘nefarious short-sellers’ angle of questioning (and insuring the uninsured prod), he simply and elegantly points out how massively asymmetric the bet was, how the asymmetry in Europe has disappeared now, and all the asymmetry lies in Japan. From the 14-minute mark, describes the demographic disaster, destroys the savings myth of the land of the rising sun, and brings into focus how Italy’s rapid demise should be a forewarning for the debt-servicing of Japan.

Ending up on the Fed’s printing and the need for guns and gold, there’s a little here for everyone!

“Buying gold is just buying a put against the idiocy of the political cycle. It’s That Simple”

Written by mo

November 21st, 2011 at 12:38 am

%d bloggers like this: